财经快讯

上期所:不惧缩表 金银维持多头思路

日期:2017-09-07
贵金属在8月最后一周获得了强劲的上涨动能,并一举突破此前平台高点,黄金刷新年内新高至1340美元/盎司上方,白银亦攀升至4个月高点逼近18美元/盎司整数关口。近期金银上涨的动能,除了耶伦在杰克逊霍尔会议上未谈及货币政策,令市场大失所望,导致打压美债收益率之外,朝鲜局势不稳引发的避险情绪,亦是主要推手。我们担心短时避险需求持续性不佳,这可能带来金银高位回调的风险,但利率驱动下的多头格局未变,我们预计回调仍有较好的买点。
  
上期所:不惧缩表 金银维持多头思路(图1)
年内美联储缩表的确定性要大于加息,即便9月不缩,12月势必会缩。缩表是否一定会带来美债收益率的趋势性抬升,恐怕是当下贵金属市场最关心的问题,也是决定金银走势的关键。在缩表落地之前,市场在情绪上可能还是会忌惮“削减恐慌”的威力,并对美债收益率有所支撑。但从缩表本身对利率的实际影响来看,市场对利率上行风险的担忧终将被证伪。
  

整体上,我们继续看多贵金属。COMEX黄金向上突破自2011年9月历史高点以来的下跌趋势线之后站稳,大方向维持多头思路;不过,当前位置回调买入或有更好的安全边际。近日金银上冲,主要因避险情绪推涨,但避险需求的持续性存疑,短期或需警惕高位回调风险。

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