财经快讯

美银美林:英国央行利率决议前瞻

日期:2017-09-13
本周四英国央行将召开货币政策会议,周二公布的数据显示,英国通胀触及五年来最高水平,这似乎给英国央行进一步采取行动支撑英镑提供了更多理据。那么此次英银会议是否会有惊喜?

对此,美银美林(BofAML)分析师周三(9月13日)撰文如下:

本行外汇策略研究团队认为,英镑交易员本周关键的问题是英国央行在周四的政策会议上会有多鹰派?

我们说的是措辞,而不是行动,风险也不是核心情况。

美银美林:英国央行利率决议前瞻(图1)
我们依旧预期会以7:2维持利率不变,通胀可能在10月筑顶后放缓,英国央行会有充足的时间来观察数据。

预计疲弱的经济增长至少会在2019年之前阻止升息。此前我们看到,薪资增长很快消失,但失业率比2016年初要低。加息的风险并不是零,而且可能会增长。

因此,鸽派意味更淡的货币政策委员会将可能给英镑提供一定支持。

但是,我们依旧认为英镑将在一系列政治事件中走软,这将考验市场的信念过渡协议将在不久之后公布。

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