财经快讯

德国通胀数据疲软 或促使欧银“缓慢”撤出宽松

日期:2017-09-29
周四(9月28日)公布的数据显示,德国和西班牙9月的消费者物价(CPI)涨幅小于预期,使得欧洲央行意见相当平衡的货币政策讨论,将倾向于更为慎重有序的退出刺激计划。

欧洲最大的经济体德国9月消费者物价调和指数(HICP)较上年同期上涨1.8%,涨幅低于预估值1.9%。西班牙9月HICP同比涨1.9%,涨幅亦低于预估的2%。

德国商业银行的Marco Bargel表示:“这些数据令欧洲央行得以缓慢撤出扩张性货币政策,目前德国与欧元区的通胀形势虽然没有提供推迟缩减购债的任何理由,可也没道理匆忙行事。”
德国通胀数据疲软 或促使欧银“缓慢”撤出宽松(图1)

欧洲央行的鹰派人士希望该央行相对较快地缩减资产购买规模,而鸽派则推崇逐步撤出资产购买。欧洲央行的主要政策目标是将通胀维持在略低于2%的水平。

该央行预计将在今年秋季,最有可能在10月决定是否从明年起开始控制刺激措施。

分析师表示,弱于预期的德国通胀数据也支持这样一种预期:物价压力温和将促进以消费带动的经济增长。

Sal Oppenheim分析师Ulrike Kastens表示,她预计德国薪资明年平均最多增长3%,认为通胀仍持平在1.7%左右。

德国通胀率持续高于欧元区平均水平。欧元区9月整体通胀数据初值将于周五出炉。

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