财经快讯

巴克莱:日本大选最可能出现的三种情形

日期:2017-10-09
日本大选竞杨动将于10月10日正式拉开帷幕。
 
针对此次大选,巴克莱银行(Barclays)撰文如下:
 
自民党轻松且简单获胜似乎不再是一个主导的基础情形。
 
巴克莱:日本大选最可能出现的三种情形(图1)
反对党正在重新调整,不断积聚力量,这对执政党的多数议席增加风险。
 
我们列出可能出现的3种潜在情形:
 
1、自民党大获全胜(执政党保留2/3的多数议席)。
 
2、自民党勉强获胜(执政党保持多数议席,但不足三分之二)。
 
3、自民党意外失利(执政党失去多数议席)。
 
因“安倍经济学”的持续以及更极端政策的风险,上述每一种情形对日元、日本国债和股票的影响都将不同。
 
 
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