财经快讯

GFMS:今年白银供应不再短缺 银币银条需求大降

日期:2017-11-20
GFMS数据显示,今年全球白银市场将从此前连续四年出现供应不足状态中逆转,出现供应小幅过剩的情况。

GFMS称,今年全球白银市场将有3220万盎司的白银供应过剩。事实上白银市场的供应缺口已经从2013年的1.364亿盎司减少到了2016年的1890万盎司。

GFMS预计,今年全年白银均价将在17.13美元/盎司,较去年17.14美元/盎司仅有小幅下降。

2017年全年白银供应量预计和去年持平,在10亿盎司左右,不过废料回收的增多以及矿企净对冲量的下降抵消了矿产量下降,因此出现供应过剩。

今年全球白银矿产量8.697亿盎司,同比下降2%。
 

GFMS:今年白银供应不再短缺 银币银条需求大降(图1)


在此前连续5年废料回收下降后,今年来自这一方面的白银同比上涨1%至1.416亿盎司。

全部实物白银需求量预计同比跌5%至9.761亿盎司,主要是散户投资出现大幅下降,不过银器需求有所增加,银饰和工业需求也有所增加。

工业需求方面,总需求预计增长3%至5.814亿盎司。太阳能行业和电器以及焊合金需求都有所增加。

太阳能方面需求预计增加20%至9200万盎司。
 

银币和银条需求预计同比大跌37%至1.301亿盎司。

银饰需求预计同比增长1%至2.071亿盎司,亚洲地区需求有所下降,但北美地区需要有所回升。

此外,白银ETF净流入预计达到1490万盎司。

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