财经快讯

市场发出两大积极信号 黄金正迎来突破千三关口的好时机

日期:2017-11-23

盛宝银行策略主管Ole Hansen表示,黄金交易商需要耐心,因为市场仍陷于狭窄的交易区间。不过,他认为,今年年底金价上涨的可能性正变得越来越大。更平坦的收益率曲线和正苦苦挣扎的美元/日元汇率是黄金市场的两大积极迹象。

美/日挣扎+收益率曲线趋平

两年期和10年期美债收益率已经收窄至10年来最低点。“我正密切关注日元走势,空头回补可能会推动日元兑美元汇率走高,这对黄金非常有利,” Hansen表示,“我认为,收益率曲线趋平将降低对美元的风险偏好。这是黄金在短期内实现突破最好的机会。”

Hansen指出,长期债券的持续购买和短期债券被抛售表明,市场对经济衰退的担忧超过了通货膨胀,从而提振了黄金的避险吸引力。

Hansen承认,最近的价格走势让投资者感到沮丧,因为黄金价格一直无法突破1300美元/盎司。不过,他补充称,在股市不断刷新纪录、债券收益率不断上升的环境下,黄金表现出了一定弹性。

此外,美联储不急于大幅提高利率也对黄金构成支撑。美联储主席耶伦周二晚间维持了逐步加息的利率轨迹倾向。Hansen表示。

至于近期价格走势,市场仍然对黄金突破1300美元缺乏信心。Hansen表示,可能是短线交易者在主导市场。他指出,交易员报告最新动态表明,对冲基金继续买入黄金,扩大了市场的净多头头寸。

从技术层面来看,Hansen表示,第一个支撑位是1275美元/盎司,但其关键支撑位于10月低点1260美元/盎司左右。他表示,上行方向,金价需要突破10月高点1305美元/盎司才会吸引新的大规模买入势头。因此,在取得突破之前,交易员们必须保持耐心。

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