财经快讯

高盛再度化身“大空头” 直言2018年金价将跌至1200美元

日期:2017-12-20

国际知名投行高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)周二(12月19日)发布报告称,随着美国税改计划和美联储主席交替看来进展顺利,原先支撑黄金价格的担忧情况得以缓和,预计2018年中金价将跌至1200美元/盎司。

由于美国靓丽的经济数据推升美债收益率,现货黄金周二略微下跌至1261美元/盎司,但今年以来仍有近10%的涨幅。与此同时,现货白银周二下跌0.5%至16.05美元/盎司,今年以来仅上涨1.5%。

高盛分析师Jeffrey Currie和Michael Hinds在最新的报告中写道,未来三个月、六个月及十二个月的黄金价格预期分别在1225美元/盎司、1200美元/盎司以及1225美元/盎司。

高盛再度化身“大空头” 直言2018年金价将跌至1200美元(图1)

该行并提及了看跌金价的三个因素:首先是美联储势必会进一步加息,而市场接近消化美联储对于明后两年各升息四次的预期;其二,发达市场国内生产总值继续强劲增长,商业周期进入扩张阶段;最后,地缘政治风险不会恶化,2018和2019年也不会发生经济衰退。

至于白银方面,高盛指出,未来六个月银价大致会走平,但未来十二个月可能上涨,因强劲的全球经济增长将刺激工业金属的需求。

该行对未来三个月、六个月和十二个月的银价预估分别在16.20美元/盎司,16美元/盎司以及17.20美元/盎司。

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