财经快讯

英国央行下一次升息或在2018年5月

日期:2017-12-29
英国央行11月进行了十年来的首次加息,但12月决议一致同意维稳,并重申不急于再度加息。展望明年,英国央行会否继续加息?

对此,道明证券(TDS)分析师周五(12月29日)撰文就英国央行升息前景进行分析,内容如下:

道明证券认为,英国央行下一次升息或发生在2018年5月,在英国与欧盟27国达成过渡协议之后。

英国央行下一次升息或在2018年5月(图1)

除此之外,货币政策委员会(MPC)可能会继续非常缓慢的升息路径,在英国退欧谈判进入冲刺阶段后暂停一年。

我们预计英国央行将在2019年升息两次,我们的预期是基于从弱势货币持续缓慢地传递到通胀、在需求增长良好的情况下趋势供应增长降低、接近充分就业的劳动力市场导致薪资上涨,以及在第一季度达成英国退欧过渡协议来减少家庭和企业的一些不确定性。

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