财经快讯

2018年黄金下行风险有限

日期:2018-01-11
ETF Securities研究和投资主管James Butterfill表示,他预计2018年黄金价格变动不大,即便美联储料将继续收紧货币政策。

该机构认为,金价下行风险有限,因美国通胀上升,实际利率仍将受抑;而股市崩盘或地缘政治紧张局势升级等冲击性事件可能会推高金价。

Butterfill称,乐观情境下,假设美联储变得日益鸽派,金价将升至1420;悲观情境下,倘若美联储今年加息4次,则到年底10年期美债名义收益率将升至3.3%,在没有地缘政治或金融市场冲击的情况下,金价将跌至1110.
新一方面,Butterfill认为升势可能已经见顶。鉴于需求增速可能会因油价上涨而放缓,加之供应提速,他预计2018年油价仍将处在45-60的区间内。
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